Gaming startup · monthly resolution

The hockey stick of a
viral gaming startup

Two-phase growth: for a while the user base barely moves (the slow handle), then at the inflection point it goes viral and climbs in a straight, steep line (the blade). You set how many new users arrive each month before and after the kink — that is what makes the curve bend, then rise linearly. The horizontal axis is time (months).

Fixed parameters

Known up front. The 30% app-store cut applies to in-app purchases only — ad-network revenue is not taxed by the store.

Fixed monthly costs (salaries, rent) $/mo

Starting users U₀

Play with these

The two new-user rates create the hockey stick: a small one for the slow handle, a big one for the viral blade, meeting at the inflection month.

Inflection month (goes viral) 10

New users / mo · slow phase 1,500

New users / mo · viral phase 30,000

Ad spend / month $40k

Ad revenue / user $0.8/mo

In-app purchases / user $1.5/mo

Investment $1.5Menter in $K

A constant percentage growth (e.g. 90%/mo) would curve into a vertical wall, not a straight line. A constant number of new users per month gives the straight blade you want.

Inflection month

—

Blade slope (linear rise)

—

Net revenue / user (ARPU)

—

Break-even month

—

Monthly revenue (the hockey stick) Monthly cashflow Users Break-even · inflection

Users: U(t) = U(t-1) + (t ≤ T ? slow : viral) · Net ARPU: ad/user + 0.7·IAP/user
Revenue: R(t) = ARPU·U(t) · Cashflow: π(t) = R(t) − fixed − adSpend · Blade slope: ARPU·viral